« A sure sign... | Main | Microsoft sucks »

Place your bets

If we're going to make a pool for Kerry's VP pick, we'd better get started. How would you guys make the books? What are the odds?

At first blush, it would seem Edwards is almost a no-brainer. Still, I have a few reasons for questioning the conventional wisdom:

  1. Barry's Political Rule #27: The VP nomination is always a surprise.
  2. I don't think Kerry likes Edwards very much. This by itself is no deal-breaker, however. There is ample precedent for a president to hate his VP.
  3. Edwards is widely regarded as being unready for the VP slot (but, as above, this is hardly without precedent).
  4. The electoral map. The barrage of polling data we face every day encourages most of us to think in terms of the popular vote. That's not the way the candidates think, however. It's all about the states. I believe Kerry has written off the South. The Midwest, by contrast, is a genuine battleground area. Look for the successful candidate to emerge from there.

So if not Edwards, who? Put me down for Gephardt, I guess, just to be contrarian.


Sorry to disagree, but put me down for Edwards. I think you're right that Kerry doesn't like him, but as soon as the Kerry team becomes convinced that Edwards is what's needed to win, his personal aversion will take a backseat to practicality. I think Edwards is their strognest candidate. Any other combo simply doesn't poll that well against Bush.

no way! you might be right about the veep being a midwesterner but not "no eyebrows" Dickie! after his lame showing in Iowa what makes you think he could deliver the midwest to Kerry?

Alexa, you may be right. Maybe I should've plunked my chits down on Tom Vilsack. Oh well, too late now...


Wes Clark

Don't you guys read Drudge? It's Hillary Clinton.

You're all assuming that Kerry's not still spending hours on the phone every day tearfully pleading with John McCain.

As much as I've tried to put the thought out of my head, I've expected that it would be Hillary Clinton for awhile now. If she really wants to be the President some day, she can't afford for Kerry to win this year and not be on the ticket.

Have a nice day

Post a comment