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Bush doubles support among blacks

If you're a Kerry guy, you've got to hate to see this. Granted, there's no danger of Bush bagging Charlie Rangel's endorsement, but if John Kerry is to win this, a necessary (but not sufficient) condition is for African-Americans to turn out to vote for him in near "Al Gore" proportions. It doesn't look like that's going to happen.

President Bush has doubled his support among blacks in four years and Sen. John Kerry's backing among the key Democratic voting bloc is down slightly from the support Al Gore won in 2000, according to a poll released Tuesday.

The Democratic presidential nominee holds a nearly 4-to-1 margin over Bush in the poll by the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a Washington-based research group that focuses on issues concerning blacks.

Bush got low marks for his handling of the war in Iraq and his overall job performance. The Republican incumbent did gain more support than in 2000 from those age 50 and older and those who consider themselves Christian conservatives.

That helped the president narrow the still sizable gap with Kerry among blacks, who preferred the four-term Massachusetts senator over Bush, 69 percent to 18 percent. The group's poll before the 2000 election found Gore with a 74 percent to 9 percent lead over Bush.

This could also help shed some light on John Kerry's egregious gay baiting in the last presidential debate. The Democrats are clearly aware that they have a problem with a crucially important part of their base on the issue.


Hee hee! I mentioned this as a possible reason four days ago in a different thread on this page.

Blacks have always polled more against gay marriage than any other group excepting the Christian right.

When you start breaking down some numbers and doing the math, it gets even more brutal. My quick math on Florida shows that a similar level of black support for Bush in Florida would have given netted him over 40,000 votes over Gore. The numbers look even better for Bush among high-turnout groups like 50+ and higher household incomes.

It's Not Just That Bush Doubled Support Among Blacks

Jesse Jackson, flawed though he may be, has always included gays as part of his coalition. Given the blacks on the whole did well in the 1990s, but have done far worse than whites in the recent recession... all I can say is that we shall see.

I am not, however, going to celebrate how gay rights can be an effective wedge issue among those who fear gays coming out of the closet. I personally agree with Kerry's answer in the last debate far more than I did with Bush's.

What I really find interesting is the support Bush has among the religous in the African American community. The African American community at it's heart is a very conservative community rooted in worship of God, and activity in the church. If Republicans want to make a dent this is a good place to start.

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