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Curiouser and curiouser

Earlier, I concluded that Sunday's polling data for the Rasmussen tracking poll must have constituted a sharp Kerry spike. Well, today's tracking poll has the race exactly tied at 47.8% each. Given that Sunday's Kerry spike and Saturday's Kerry lead were both factored into the three-day average, I have to conclude that Monday's raw numbers represent an even bigger Bush spike.

Of course that doesn't make much sense on the face of it. That is, of course, the reason for using the moving average in the first place -- to smooth out this kind of noise. I still predict that's exactly what it is, however -- noise. It was an anomalous weekend, and I think it'll be a couple of days before we really know where we stand with Rasmussen.