« I guess we shouldn't be surprised... | Main | "Choke" on this, Jackass! »

Tonight's debate

I'm flying to Omaha tonight to visit some friends (not Warren Buffett), so there will be no liveblogging, alas. That's too bad, because I found it quite therapeutic the last time. Perhaps CRB can hold the fort here until I get back on Sunday.

There will be much focus on Bush's performance tonight, but I'm not sure it really matters much. The polling internals suggest to me that Kerry's recent surge is more a function of his own strong performance than Bush's lackluster one. The most likely scenario for a turnaround may well be a major gaffe by Kerry.

Meanwhile, John al-Zogbi has released a fresh batch of polling data, giving electoral-vote.com the first Kerry EC victory map we've seen in many weeks.

We got us a horse race, y'all! Isn't this fun?