Corzine-Forrester: a bold prediction
A recent poll shows New Jersey Senator John Corzine in a closer-than-expected race for the governor's mansion. He now leads Republican Doug Forrester by a margin of 43 to 33.
On its surface that lead looks pretty comfortable, but there are several factors which should give the Corzine team pause.
- His support is under the critical 50% mark, a bad sign for a quasi-incumbent.
- His lead was 23 points as recently as May.
- Forrester led Corzine 35 to 29 among independents.
- A number of respondents said they "favored another candidate." It's not clear who they favored, but it's very likely one of Forrester's primary foes, since Corzine was essentially unopposed in the Democratic primary. This could represent a small group of GOP-leaning independents.
It's still too early to put any money on it, but I would like to make my official prediction of the outcome right now: New Jersey's next governor will be a rich white guy.
(I apologize to my non-Jersey readers for this brief digression into the local politics of my recently adopted home state.)