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Bush's lead continues to narrow...

...at least according to Rasmussen's tracking poll. Power Line charitably refers to it as a "single point" lead. But it's not. It's a 0.3% lead. In other words, no lead at all. Worse, it's in keeping with a clear trend that began after the first presidential debate. I wonder whether Bush will be able to arrest the slide in the next debate.


I fully expect Kerry to finish the debates with a bump in the polls. Debating isn't Bush's strong suit. But Bush as the sitting President can do something that Kerry can't, he can create news.

I don't think either candidate has a lot of strong support, so there will be poll fluxuations right up to election day. Watch for a few news-worthy "surprises" after the final debate to steer the electorate back to the Bush camp.

What kind of "October Surprise" do you have in mind?

Stabilizing the notorious areas of resistance in Iraq would help.

It seems we are moving faster on that than was anticipated, perhaps to mollify the American angst over Iraq.

Let me ask you, PE: what "October surprises" do you think the Kerry camp will pull?

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